CA Residential Structure Panel

An annual panel of estimated residential structure counts for all California Census tracts, 2010–2024. Combines Overture Maps building footprints, Census Bureau Permits Survey (BPS), and CAL FIRE damage inspections (DINS). A 500-iteration bootstrap over Overture's 69% null-subtype rate produces P5/P50/P95 uncertainty intervals calibrated against ACS B25001.


Statewide Residential Structures, 2010–2024


2024 Snapshot

Median Structures

P5–P95:

Census Tracts

2010 vintage

Counties

All 58 CA counties

Methodology

Source Coverage Role
Overture Maps (2024) 15.6M CA building footprints; 4.35M labeled residential 2024 anchor count
Census BPS (2010–2024) 1.41M authorized residential units Annual permit-based hindcast
CAL FIRE DINS (2013–2022) 50,483 destroyed residential structures Wildfire demolition correction
ACS B25001 (2010–2024) 5-year rolling estimates by tract External validation

The bootstrap samples the Overture null-subtype absorption fraction from a Beta(2, 5) prior calibrated against ACS counts, propagating labeling uncertainty into P5/P50/P95 intervals. For 15 dense-urban counties, the Arruda et al. (2024) OSM-derived counts replace the ACS-calibrated absorption fraction (Spearman ρ = 0.916 vs. bootstrap).

Paper: structure_count_writeup.pdf · Code: github.com/rkvaughn/ca-residential-structure-panel